Greater workforce expertise in microbiology, genetics, virology and public health is also required within the intelligence community.ģ. The US intelligence community has a track record here, but it and other Five Eyes countries will require even more strategic, coordinated outreach from the relatively closed intelligence world to the scientific community. The intricacy of future pandemic threats and possible weaponisation of biotechnology will require intelligence agencies to foster a more purposeful and consistent interaction with the scientific community. Fostering stronger ties with the scientific community This means improving ways to combine traditional intelligence sources (often qualitative in nature) with scientific evidence to assess better the potential intent, capability and impact of threats and health hazards.Ģ. More genetic data and a better understanding of how coronaviruses are transmitted naturally are required to fill the information gaps, notably in the initial cases in Wuhan. In particular, analysts haven’t identified which animal the virus likely “jumped from” to infect humans. Yet the scientific and epidemiological data themselves are also incomplete. That is, the scientific evidence leads to the market as the probable epicentre of the epidemic. Several scientific studies that examined environmental testing for Covid-19 at the live animal and seafood market in Wuhan and early patient cases living nearby have provided strong evidence of a natural transmission of the virus. There’s also the question of how intelligence analysts comprehend complicated scientific research. The variations in analytical judgements are mostly due to how each agency interprets what are, at best, fragmented intelligence sources. This lack of consensus among intelligence agencies and low levels of confidence on their assessments are due to many factors. Photo: Weibo Why is intelligence conflicting? The Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, where it is believed the outbreak started. Two agencies remain undecided, including, reportedly, the Central Intelligence Agency. Two others ( the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Energy) have now assessed it as a lab leak. No agency was named in the unclassified report, though four agencies, as well as the National Intelligence Council, have reportedly concluded (also with low confidence) that the origins were from natural transmission.
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